Just when
the first rays of sunlight had begun to appear through a dark storm, they’ve
disappeared again. Bear markets are like that. They often taunt you into making
gambles with your money and the moment you think you’ve made the right decision
you realize that the ever powerful stock market has once again humbled you.
It’s been the case for the past few months but the beginning of November seemed
to bring in the confirmation of the market bottom, or so we thought.
In one single day many Indian investors
have lost nearly half their life savings….and they’re the lucky ones. Those who
invested as early as January this year at the peak of the Indian markets have
seen the value of their investment disappear by at least 80%.Many of them-retired
professionals had hoped to make the stock market the instrument that would
guide them through their old age. But young or old, everyone was a lot poorer
by the time the Bombay Stock Exchange closed early in the evening on Friday.
That was perhaps the only silver lining—that it was a Friday. The markets are
closed over the weekend. It’s as though the markets have been hit by a giant
meteorite and put into a dreadful tailspin.
If the Finance Minister is to be
believed then everything in the Indian banking sector is hunky dory. The banks
have enough cash and the RBI is doing a wonderful job. At least, that’s the
impression one would have got if he or she were present at a press conference
addressed by P.Chidambaram earlier today. Cynics have already pegged this
estimation as a deliberate lie that misguides people about our banking system
making out the case for Indian banks to be as bad as faced by banks in the US.
Both arguments are valid but on
this count it’d the
Finance Minister’s statements that have turned out to be more accurate.
Indian banks aren’t as comfortable as he says they are but they definitely have an ample supply of liquidity to power the Indian economic engine.
The movement of oil prices in the
world markets has brought about the setting in of some important changes. Free
markets like the United States or the Socialist ones like India have had to
accept the fact that the very structure of the world economy is changing. We
once viewed the 100 dollars per barrel of oil as an indication to push the
panic button but after everything that has happened in the past one year there
is an inclination to believe that this figure despite being regarded as ‘high’
is still a ‘realistic’ expression of the oil scenario.
The current period is an ideal
situation for stock picking especially if you’re interested in investing with a
long term view. The markets are in a state where their movements are
‘predicted’ or speculated upon by those who want to make money without
investing too much. This has resulted in the market being largely bearish. Such
a situation may interest one to invest in the banking sector.
Reserve Bank of India has raised the Capital adequacy norms with immediate effect to prevent the financial irregularities and make the non-banking financial Companies(NBFCs) safer. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday (2nd June 2008) asked non-deposit taking NBFCs to raise the minimum Capital to Risk-weighted Assets Ratio (CRAR) from 10% now to 12% with immediate effect and further to 15% with effect from April 1, 2009.
In my opinion, there is a lull in the home loan interest rate market in India with plenty of banks and housing finance companies announcing festive offers with lower interest rates for new borrowers.
The people of India wait with bated breath for home loan interest rates to fall. There is no doubt that the average Indian dream of owning his own home is stronger then compared to other impulses.