As
of writing this, the Sensex is on the verge of crossing 18,000 for the second
time in 3 months. It’s a surprising scenario to many because it’s a situation
that was not expected. Many brokerages had gone on record to say that the Sensex
would not reach this level in the current trade because the signs of a
breakdown had begun to appear. Europe was and still is in the woods and the
thinking was that the situation in Europe would rub off onto the other markets.
Frankly
speaking, an effort to time the fall of this market has proved futile again and
again. The pattern of thinking has been to anticipate a fall in the markets but
as we have seen, the Sensex may tumble into a multipoint fall but does not
continue the tumble but rather makes up the fall in a few sessions. Throw in a
few flat sessions in between and the cycle has repeated.
But in
the past few days the trading has been strong. Buying has increased which is
why we stand at the threshold of 18K.
Most
of you would have undoubtedly heard of Rakesh
Jhunjhunwala, India’s biggest and greatest individual investor. Described
as an extremely smart long term investor, he simply gets richer every time the
Indian markets reach a new high and we all must know by now that Rakesh
Jhunjhunwala is a BULL by nature and
was the face of the Great Indian Bull Run during the past six years when the Sensex
rallied like crazy.
However
this article is not about him, it’s about his ‘nemesis’ and the ‘Anti-Jhunjhunwala’,
India’s most well known Bear, Shankar Sharma. His views yesterday in
an interview quite beautifully summed up the bearish point of view on the
Indian markets.
A three day losing streak was broken today with the
Sensex ending a slight inch ahead of the 15,000 mark. The flat closing is indicative
of both bullish patterns and bear trends dominating the market. The bear phase
we saw for most of last year and much of this year has eased significantly
since the middle of March. The American economy too seems to be doing a lot better;
I mean that in a market sense not in the overall scheme of things though
unemployment figures have thankfully reduced. The Dow Jones has started to
reflect money once again coming back into the equity markets.
The Indian case is similar except that the volume
of shares being traded and the ease with which money is flowing through the Sensex
is much more comfortable because India continues to be seen as a good
investment destination.
